Quote Alpha2017-09-13T16:53:49-07:00

Sarah Ketterer

One general defense against value traps is to by and large avoid product-cycle businesses. You can have faith that Nokia gets its act together in smartphones, or that Motorola returns to prominence in handsets, or that the latest device from Nintendo is a big hit, but we think that’s very tricky. For a company caught in the headwind of a business cycle, we can make assumptions about recovery that we consider to be well founded. We believe we’re much less able to make similar assumptions about future product cycles. We’re also leery of industries with excess capacity independent of the business cycle. We’re being very careful today in the automobile industry, for example, where there’s still a lot of excess capacity and stepped-up competition is coming from China and elsewhere in Asia.

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