One of my favorite investing quotes of all time is from Joe Rosenberg, Loews Corp.'s chief investment strategist for many years, who said the secret to outperformance is to “have opinions at extremes, and wait for extreme moments.” We're willing to wait for the perfect pitch rather than swing at things that look pretty good. [...]

I’m very leery of any business that is so cyclical that it burns cash at or near the bottom. I’ve concluded there are enough alternatives out there that I don’t need to accept that kind of risk.