I have a pretty strict rule that if anything changes my perspective on a company so that my earnings estimates fall by more than 15 percent, I sell. You could legitimately argue a stock is even more attractive if its price falls 25 percent and your estimates only go down 15 percent, but that in [...]

When I look at mistakes I've made like buying the best sub-prime mortgage lender in late 2006 they've primarily been when I thought I was getting a great deal on a house, only to find out later there had been a fire smoldering in the basement. The obvious lesson is that things that look cheap [...]

I try to own businesses that are inexpensive in an absolute rather than relative sense. No position I own today trades at more than 15× my estimate of the next 12 months' earnings. The only companies I own at more than 12× earnings are in businesses that I think are among the best in the [...]

I'm looking for opportunities in which I have a differentiated view on forward earnings, preferably revenue-driven. You generally make money in three ways on the long side: your estimates are higher than the Street's and the consensus moves to your numbers, the earnings grow, or the earnings multiple expands. By and large, the multiple is [...]