Models beat human forecasters because they reliably and consistently apply the same criteria time after time. Models never vary. They are never moody, never fight with their spouse, are never hung over from a night on the town, and never get bored. They don’t favor vivid, interesting stories over reams of statistical data. They never take anything personally. They don’t have egos. They’re not out to prove anything. If they were people, they’d be the death of any party. People on the other hand, are far more interesting. It’s far more natural to react emotionally or to personalize a problem than it is to dispassionately review broad statistical occurrences and so much more fun! It’s much more natural for us to look at the limited set of our personal experiences and then generalize from this small sample to create a rule-of-thumb heuristic. We are a bundle of inconsistencies, and although this tends to make us interesting, it plays havoc with our ability to successfully invest.